14 julio 2012

Salir del Euro en 7 pasos

Se atribuye a T.S. Eliot la frase que hay momentos en los cuales la única elección para mantener una religión viva es la herejía. Esta es la situción de España hoy si queremos salvar la dignidad, y con ella la democracia y la libertad o nos resignamos a ser dirigidos por una tecnocracia de banqueros y otros expertos. Y esa herejía hoy es salir del Euro. Pero, ¿Cómo se hace esto?.

De las muchas alternativas posibles, una publicada en Credit Writedowns para Italia me parece que sería perfectamente aplicable a España. La reproduzco a continuación en inglés.

1 Plan. The Italian government can plan for a redenomination into New Lira in secret that takes advantage of the Italian law jurisdiction over their sovereign debt obligations.
2 Law. “Euroization” would remain in place and the euro would continue as the currency of physical payment. However, New Lira would become the national currency, pegged at 1,936.27, exactly the same rate as the Lira was fixed on 31 December 1998 and converted into euros on 1 January 2002. All debt under Italian law would be redenominated into New Lira at the 1,936.27 New Lira exchange rate peg. This would effectively bring us back to 31 December 2001 for Italy.
3 Taxes. The government would announce that henceforth it will tax exclusively in New Lira. All municipal governments would be required by law to tax in New Lira.
4 Banks. Like the Argentines before them, the Italian government would convert all euro bank accounts legally into New Lira. The systems would process as if it were euros because of the fixed peg, but legally the money would be New Lira. This would make the Italian economy “euroized” but make the banking system redenominated into New Lira.
5 Retail. Retailers, all sellers of Italian goods, would then be forced to return to the double accounting treatment of pre-2002 whereby they denominate all transactions in both Lira and Euros. Again, the paper money would be euros and each euro would initially be worth 1,936.27 New Lira. The electronic money would legally be New Lira, even while the systems said euro.
6 Float. On day one, immediately after redominating, the Italian government would drop the 1,936.27 New Lira exchange rate peg and float the new Lira as a freely floating currency. From that day forward, foreign currency adjustments would need to be made between euro and New Lira.
7 Physical currency. New Lira would be printed by the Bank of Italy and introduced to replace euros.

Del mismo articulo reproduzco dos consecuancias que me parecen las más interesantes:

Bank solvency. This was the biggest issue to begin with. The redomination solves Italian bank solvency since all their accounts would be in New Lira. But this solution heaps all of the burden of adjustment onto foreign lenders via the exchange rate adjustment. German, Dutch and French banks would be insolvent if the New Lira lost a lot of value as they would be repaid in depreciated currency. I think this point highlights what I have been saying about apportioning losses in a creditor-friendly way. The foreign lenders have used the fact that the euro is one zone to lend cross-border and increase their return on equity. They bear some of the responsibility for the credit growth in the periphery. The foreign currency losses they would take from a New Lira demonstrates this.

National Solvency. That problem would be solved. The burden of adjustment would then fall to the exchange rate.

En cuaquierl caso es cierto que las repercusiones de la salida del Euro serían enormes, pero de eso tratan las herejías.